000
AGXX40 KNHC 221700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE RAPIDLY DISAPPEARING.
CURRENT GFS RUN INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY 
TIED TO THIS WAVE WILL GET PULLED N INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS BY 
FRI...HOWEVER WAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD INTO 
THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THAT TIME. WILL DROP 
MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ANY EVENT WILL NOT GO 
ABOVE THE CURRENTLY ANALYZED AND FORECASTED 20 KT WIND E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS THROUGH THE WEEK-END.

AS FOR THE SW N ATLC...SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT...TIED TO 
ATYPICAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH... 
DRAPES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 31N72W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. W AND NW OF THE BOUNDARY 
WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT WITH SUSTAINED 10 KT WIND 
BEING VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANYWHERE IN THIS AREA. E OF THE 
TROUGH IN THE SW N ATLC...SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE UP 
AND THE INTERACTION OF THIS TROUGH WITH 1028 MB MIDDLE ATLC HIGH 
CENTER IS RESULTING IN SLY FLOW AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF 20 
KT. THIS GENERAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
WEEK-END BEFORE THE TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND THE MIDDLE ATLC 
RIDGE CAN RE-BUILD TO THE WEST.

ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS CHOICE 
TO SOMEWHAT IGNORE THE GFS VORTICITY MAX...PORTION OF THE STRONG 
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PULLING N 
ALONG THE W ATLC TROUGH. SHOULD THE MODEL SOLUTION PAN OUT...WE 
WOULD BE LOOKING AT SOLID 20 TO EVEN 25 KT OF SLY WINDS E OF THE 
SW N ATLC TROUGH ON FRI AND SAT...BUT AS STATED EARLIER...AM NOT 
GOING WITH THAT SOLUTION AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

$$
FORECASTER LL