000 AGXX40 KNHC 061734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... WELL ANCHORED ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES ITS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SW N ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CONTROLLING MOST CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS. WEAK TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS GULF. SIMILARLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CARIBBEAN WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE FORCED NE AS SW N ATLC RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER S. AT THE SURFACE... ATLC REMAINS QUIET UNDER RIDGE INFLUENCE WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS IMPACT NORTHERN FRINGES OF FORECAST WATERS. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N65W TO 28N67W HAS SMALL AREA OF STRONG SW WIND ASSOCIATED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION E OF AXIS...BUT SHOULD BE E OF AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NORTHERN TIP OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 76W AND 55W WILL BE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ...AND WITH LITTLE IMPACT...ON ATLC. REMAINDER OF BASIN UNUSUALLY QUIET. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL WAVES AT 55W AND 76W TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALONG THEIR AXIS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20 KT ALONG THEIR PATHS. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN ALSO TEMPORARILY INCREASE WIND AND SEAS. USUAL STRONG WIND AND HIGHER SEAS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST DUE TO EQUATORIAL TROUGH INCHING INTO NW SOUTH AMERICAN TERRAIN. GRADIENT MIGHT EASE WED AND THU IF TROUGH NE OF PUERTO RICO EXTEND SW BEFORE BEING FORCED OUT BY REBUILDING RIDGE. GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO SW N ATLC...GULF ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER UNDER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENSION. WEAK TROUGH BARELY AFFECTING N COASTAL STATES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND OR SEAS. MAIN CHARACTER IN SIGHT IS RETURN FLOW W OF 95W PICKING UP TO A NOTCH OVER 15 KT. SEAS 4-5 FT. ETA AGREES IN THIS SCENARIO WITH GFS...NOGAPS IGNORES FEATURE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND Q-SCAT SUPPORT GFS/ETA SOLUTION. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES