000 AGXX40 KNHC 141727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W AND IS DRIFTING TO THE NNE BETWEEN 5-10 KT. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS INITIALIZED THE POSITION OF THE LOW TOO FAR TO THE NORTH BUT IT APPEARS THE 12Z RUN HAS NOW BECOME MORE AGREEABLE IN PLACING THE LOW NEAR 26N93W. THE 1116 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS LYING TO THE E OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...EXTENDING NWD TO ABOUT 28N/29N JUST OFFSHORE THE U.S. GULF COAST. SEVERAL BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE AREA HAVE ALSO REPORTED WINDS UP TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS...AND THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED A BIT WITH BUOY 42001 IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND A FEW SHIPS REPORTING 7 FT SEAS AT THE MOMENT. THE FORECAST OF THE LOW POSITION IS STILL A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS LOSES THE CIRCULATION BY 0000 UTC AND RE-DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA/SW MISSISSIPPI WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY TONIGHT. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY...WOULD RATHER DRIFT THE LOW TO THE NORTH BRINGING IT INLAND OVER LOUISIANA BY TOMORROW AND KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE E BUT DYING DOWN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SWD OVER THE SW ATLC TO ALONG 25N WITH THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE STATIONARY JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED MUCH FARTHER SWD THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN STILL...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY TO ALONG 22N LATER TONIGHT ALBEIT IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. 20 KT NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BLED INTO THE SW ATLC WATERS BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES S. PREDOMINANTLY ELY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW WITH A RIDGE AXIS SINKING SWD INTO THE AREA TO ALONG 28N BY SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... EVEN WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAKENED RIDGE OVER THE ATLC...WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE W BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S AND W OVER THE ATLC. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS LIES OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 20N WITH THE TRADES HAVING WEAKENED TO NO MORE THAN 15 KT. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TOMORROW AND THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED EVENING. THE STRONGER TRADES WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER BERG