000
AGXX40 KNHC 021815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

COLD FRONT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO MOVES E AS GALE FORCE WIND OVER 
SW GULF ABATE BY 1200 UTC MON.  LINGERING 25 TO 30 KT WIND WILL 
DECREASE EARLY MON.  REMAINING GULF WILL CARRY 20 KT BEHIND COLD 
FRONT TILL LATE MON.  POWER SUPPORT GETS UNPLUGGED AS UPPER 
SHORT WAVE PULLS RAPIDLY NE LEAVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH 
LITTLE ELSE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION. 
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT WIND AND 
SEAS THROUGH OUTLOOK PERIOD. ETA...NOGAPS AND GFS HAD GOOD 
HANDLE ON FRONT TRACKING...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD.  

THAT LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT PERMIT COLD FRONT TO BRING 
SUCH HIGH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SW N ATLC BASIN AS HIGH PRES RIDGE 
SETS ANCHOR ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC REFUSING TO BE FORCED FURTHER 
E.  ALL MODELS AGREE ON RELAXING GRADIENT S OF 25N IN OUTLOOK 
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SE WIND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES WITH STRONG TRADES THROUGH MOST OF AREA 
S OF 18N.  CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGIN 
RELAXING BY END OF OUTLOOK PERIOD BEFORE RIDGE REBUILDS AGAIN. 

WARNINGS...
GALE WARNING SW GULF OF MEXICO...ZONE GMZ082..TONIGHT.

$$                   
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES