000
AGXX40 KNHC 100516
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT SAT APR 10 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS PHASING OF TROUGHS OVER ATLC AS ONE 
TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH APPROACHES SECOND TROUGH ALONG 50W. 
WHILE THIS IS EAST OF THE AREA OF THIS DISCUSSION IT IS 
NOTEWORTHY FOR THE HIGH SEAS PRODUCT.

MAJOR TROUGH SETTING UP OVER CONTINENT TONIGHT AS COLD AIR 
BEGINS TO MOVE S OVER NRN PLAINS. IT'S AFFECT THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WILL BE TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. 

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ENTIRE AREA DAY 1 WITH WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT. 

COLD AIR CONTINUES SOUTHWARD DAY 2 INTO MAJOR TROUGH SENDING A 
NEW AIRMASS S TOWARD THE NW GULF COAST. GRADIENT SUFFICIENT 
BEHIND FRONT TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 25 KT. SOME INCREASE IN SLY 
WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER GULF TO 20 KT. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

MRF MODEL SHOWS COLD POOL DROPPING S INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 3 
WITH A SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT OVER THE N GULF. AVN MODEL OVER 
DOES CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON FRONT WITH A 999 MB LOW EXITING 
OVER THE SE. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING W DAY 3..COLD FRONT 
MOVING ONLY TO CENTRAL GULF. GUSTY SLY WINDS SHIFT INTO ATLC W 
OF 72W.

MAJOR TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD DAY 4 TO 90W ALLOWING 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO EASTERN GULF. WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND FRONT 
AND AHEAD OF FRONT OVER ATLC W OF 72W. ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS 
DAY 4 INCREASING WINDS OVER ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TO 20 KT.

LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING E TO 85W DAY 5 WITH 
SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO WRN BAHAMAS. WIND PROBLEMS OVER GULF E 
OF 90W AND ATLC W OF 70W. ATLC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DAY 5 BUT 
TRADES OVER CARIBBEAN CONTINUE IN 20 KT RANGE. FRONT PUSHES INTO 
NW CARIBBEAN DAY 5 WITH GUSTY N WINDS.
 
WARNINGS...NONE. 
                   
FORECASTER RRG