000
AGXX40 KNHC 051807
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 PM EST MON APR 5 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC WATERS...
COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 28N80W MOVE TO REACH FROM 28N65W TO  
HISPANIOLA LATE TUE AND BECOME DIFFUSE WED.  HIGH PRES RIDGE 
REBUILDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER ENTIRE AREA. 
SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE U.S. THU INCREASING SW WIND OVER 
EXTREME NW PORTION.  GFS HAS SW WIND BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE THU N OF 28N AHEAD OF FRONT.  PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BRING 
STRONG NW WIND WITH MODERATE SWELLS AFFECTING E OF 75W N OF 25N. 
ELSEWHERE LIGHT WIND PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.

NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD TIMING ON APPROACHING SECOND FRONT 
BUT SOFTENS WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT TO 20 KT...WELL BELOW GFS.
ETA REMAINS OUT OF PICTURE ON THIS ONE.  WILL PUT OUR EASTER 
EGGS IN THE GFS BASKET ON THIS EVENT.  

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER MEXICO-TEXAS BORDER HAS PRODUCED FROM VERY 
HEAVY RAINS TO SQUALL LINES WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN 
GULF INTENSIFIES INTO 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER TONIGHT THEN RACES 
NE INTO GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER POSSIBLY 
SEVERE.  GRADIENT ON N AND E QUADRANTS WELL PACKED...BUT NOT SO 
ON S AND W QUADS.  NOGAPS AND GFS AGREE ON TIMING AND TRACK OF 
LOW WITH DIFFERENCES ON WINDS E OF LOW BUT WITH LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS W OF LOW.  WILL CONTINUE RELYING IN THE GFS.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BELOW NORMAL TRADE WIND...ALBEIT 20 TO 25 KT ALONG COLOMBIA 
COAST...FITS ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC AS RIDGE 
N OF AREA IS FORCED E BY APPROACHING SYSTEMS IN W ATLC.  
REBUILDING RIDGE LATE IN OUTLOOK PERIOD INCREASE E WIND S OF 15N 
TO 20 KT. 
 
WARNINGS...NONE. 
                   
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES