000 AGXX40 KNHC 031928 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED MAR 3 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N68W 1029 MB WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SAT...THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE SE FROM 28N65W TO 24N81W SAT...FROM 27N65W TO 24N81W...AND FROM 25N65W TO 24N75W MON . THE PERIOD OF PROLONGED 20-25 KT E TO SE WINDS S OF 25N W OF 70W AND 20-25 KT AND GUSTY NE WINDS S OF 25N E OF 70W WILL WEAKEN SOME FRI THEN ABATE FURTHER SUN AND MON E NEAR THE 10-15 KT RANGE. LARGE RESIDUAL SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY E OF 70W WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT THEN BE CONFINED TO MAINLY S OF 23N BY SUN AND SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. GULF OF MEXICO... SHIP AND BUOY DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED 20-25 KT SE WINDS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF MAINLY S OF 26N...AND ELSEWHERE 15-20 KT SE WINDS. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS...SEAS ARE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING (BUOY 42003 IN THE E GULF REPORTS 8 FT...IN ADDITION SHIP WFKW NEAR 28N87W AND SHIP VQFV3 IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BOTH REPORTS SEAS UP TO 10 FT) AND WILL HAVE TO ADJUST SEA HEIGHTS UPWARD ABOUT 1-2 FEET FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT OVER THE E AND MIDDLE GULF S OF 26N. FOR REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON NOAA WAVEWATCH (NWW3) GUIDANCE FROM 0600 UTC SINCE 1200 UTC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DELAYED. OVER REMAINDER OF GULF...WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE BEGINNING WED NIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE GULF AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER W TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE SE IN 20-25 KT AND AT TIMES SUSTAINED 25 KT ACROSS THESE AREAS OF THROUGH FRI UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...AND WEAKEN FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND WEAKEN AND MOVE E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N-NE FRI AND SAT AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT FRI AND SAT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF SUN EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODELS AGREE THAT WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW 20 KT FRI THEN DECREASE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SLOW MOVING STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA THEN SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING SE DURING THE PERIOD. GALE WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY GALE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN (AMZ084) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AM CONSIDERING EXTENDING IT THROUGH THU NIGHT PER MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MARGINAL GALE WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. THERE IS A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO OTHER PERIODS BUT WILL USE EXTRA TIME TO PONDER WHETHER OR NO TO CONTINUE WARNING HEADLINES IN FUTURE NT3 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS. HIGH SEAS MAXING OUT TO POSSIBILITY 16 FT STILL A GOOD BET THROUGH SAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY AFTER SAT. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN NE AND E SWELL SUBSIDING SUN AND MON. WARNINGS... SW CARIBBEAN AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W TONIGHT AND THU. ...GALE WARNING EXPECTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W THU NIGHT. FORECASTER AGUIRRE