000 AGXX40 KNHC 260619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM EST THU FEB 26 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA IS MOVING SLOWLY E AND IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC LOWS...ONE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING E ACROSS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THE FLORIDA LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE W ATLC BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL LIFT THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC N OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE NORTH PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL BE BLOCKED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE THE WILL REMAIN JUST OF THE N CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRI. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ESE FRI NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS MOVING S TO ALONG 31N. SW N ATLC... AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN IS NORTHWARD RETREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE AREA OF GALES WILL MOVE N OF 31N BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 26N SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF FLORIDA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GALES MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND NOGAPS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE GALE BEGINNING AROUND 0600 UTC AND WILL HEADLINE LIKELY GALES FOR FRI NIGHT N OF 29N BETWEEN ABOUT 73W AND 78W. GULF OF MEXICO... NW WINDS WINDS OFF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AREA-WIDE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES E OF AREA AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER REGION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FRI FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FT. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY AS NLY SWELLS FROM THE GULF AFFECT THE AREA. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 14N/15N. OUTLOOK SAT-MON... ATLC LOW PRES WILL MOVE ESE AND KEEP GALES OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD KEEPING NE WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER INTO SUN...WITH WINDS DECREASING SOME SUN/MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO AREA. NWW3 HAS SEAS INCREASING TO 18-24 FT N OF 30N LATE SAT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. SLY RETURN FLOW COMES BACK TO W GULF LATE SAT-SUN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT...THEN DECREASE AHEAD OF A WEAKER FRONT MOVING OVER GULF WATERS MON. CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT PRIMARILY OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW CARIBBEAN IN OUTLOOK PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER ATLC. TAIL END OF ATLC FRONT WILL SKIRT TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 19N SUN AND MON...WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING LARGE NLY SWELLS. WARNINGS... GALE WARNING EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...SW N ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT...SW N ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. FORECASTER BROWN