000
AGXX40 KNHC 230559
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST MON FEB 23 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

BASIC ZONAL FLOW HIGHLIGHTS THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION N OF 
20N. A OPEN UPPER RIDGE IS FORMING ALONG 90W AS 500 MB HIEGHTS 
FALL OVER THE SW US TONIGHT. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES 
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHICH IS HAVING THE AFFECT 
OF INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO 20 KT.  

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
ALONG 25N E OF 65W AND WILL EXIT THE REGION DAY 2..OTHERWISE A 
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC W OF 65W.

500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL DAY 2 OVER THE NW GULF IN 
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

LIKEWISE..SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUE FALLING OVER THE NW GULF 
INHANCING SLY WINDS E OF 92W. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OFF 
THE SE COAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN SLY WINDS W OF 70W.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUING ITS MARCH 
EASTWARD. SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE FALLING OVER THE NE GULF AS 
ONE LOW CENTER MOVES ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND A NEW ONE FORMS 
NE OF FL. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF DAY 3 WITH STRONG NW 
WINDS. SLY WINDS OVER E GULF AND ATLC W OF 65W INCREASE AS 
PRESSURES LOWER.

UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 4 WITH SURFACE LOW CENTER 
DEEPENING OFF SE COAST. COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY E INTO WESTERN 
BAHAMAS AND PUSHES INTO NW CARIBBEAN. GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND 
FRONT TO 25 KT. SLY WINDS TO 25 KT E OF FRONT TO 60W PREVAIL 
OVER ATLC.

MRF MODEL SHOWS UPPER LOW LOSING STEAM DAY 5 AS IT MOVES OVER SE 
US..PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TO N OVER NEW 
ENGLAND.

BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER ATLC WATERS ON 
BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF SE COAST. AVN HINTS AT POSSIBLE 
GALE TO 29N DAY 5. GRADIENT WILL DEPEND ON DEEPENING SURFACE LOW 
AND RIDGE OVER SE US.. NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS TREND DAY 5 LITTLE 
BETTER THAN AVN AS FAR AS WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND MOVING IT 
ESE..THUS PRESSURE GRADIENT LITTLE WEAKER AND WINDS IN 25 TO 30 
KT RANGE WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE MORE REASONABLE.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG