000
FZPN03 KNHC 181615
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 20.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.0N 111.1W 986 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 18
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE
QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N108W TO 15N110W TO 16N113W TO 
20N111W TO 20N108W TO 17N108W SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 
14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 10N107W TO 10N114W TO 18N113W TO
21N106W TO 16N103W TO 10N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO 
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.8N 115.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 195 NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 29 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N112W TO 16N116W TO 19N118W TO 22N116W TO
19N111W TO 17N112W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N107W TO 13N110W TO 15N118W TO 
21N119W TO 25N112W TO 18N107W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 20.3N 119.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
19N116W TO 18N121W TO 21N123W TO 23N121W TO 21N117W TO 19N116W SE
TO S WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
16N114W TO 15N122W TO 22N124W TO 26N117W TO 20N112W TO 16N114W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.60 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 21.2N 122.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 22.1N 123.9W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. 
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ESTELLE NEAR 23.2N 
127.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. 
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ESTELLE NEAR 23.5N 
130.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN 03.4S80W TO 03.4S120W TO 01N118W TO 08N101W TO 03.4S80W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S113W TO 03.4S120W TO 01S120W TO
01S117W TO 02S115W TO 03.4S113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT
IN SE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN 17N138W TO 15N140W TO 20N140W TO 19N139W TO 18N138W TO
17N138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1550 UTC MON JUL 18...

HURRICANE ESTELLE...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG FROM 
13N TO 19N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N96W TO 10N102W AND THEN FROM 
14N114W TO 11N123W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W...FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 
116W AND 135W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W. 

$$
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.