000
FZPN03 KNHC 152141
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT JUL 15 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON JUL 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 11.4N 124.0W 955 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 15 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT 
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...90 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 270 NM S QUADRANTS AND 180 NM E 
AND W QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 12.7N 128.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N AND 150 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM SE AND 
NW QUADRANTS AND 150 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 
121W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 14.1N 132.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 37 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 270 NM NW QUADRANTS AND 180 NM NE 
AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER 
OF AREA FROM 06.5N TO 22N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 15.7N 135.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 16.8N 138.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.3N 141.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 14N99.5W 1013 MB. FROM 14N TO 15.5N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 102W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 14N104W 1012 MB. WITHIN 120 NM 
NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
15N105W 1011 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 03S108W TO 03.4S120W TO 
00N120W TO 01N133W TO 03N124W TO 02N116W TO 03S108W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 03.4S81W TO 03.4S120W 
TO 00N133W TO 05N123W TO 03.4S81W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
10 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1930 UTC SAT JUL 15...

.HURRICANE FERNANDA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM E AND 45 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
120 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES.

.DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 14N99.5W...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 96W 
AND 103W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 07.5N84W TO DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES NEAR 14N99.5W TO 11N111W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N127W TO 
08N136W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N136W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH 
E OF 90W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.