000
FZPN03 KNHC 160912
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 18.

.WARNINGS.

..HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE DARBY NEAR 17.6N 123.1W 972 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 16
MOVING W NW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...100 NM NE AND 50 NM SW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E AND WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 38 FT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E AND 240 NM W SEMICIRCLES. REMAINDER OF
WATERS WITHIN 480 NM SE AND 300 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DARBY NEAR 18.4N 126.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
240 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DARBY NEAR 19.1N 129.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE...70 NM SE...60 NM SW...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210
NM SE AND 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. REMAINDER OF
WATERS WITHIN 360 NM SE AND 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.8N 134.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 20.1N 138.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.5N 144.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 15.6N 109.0W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC
JUL 16 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 75 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER WATERS WITHIN 240
NM E AND WITHIN 300 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 16.3N 111.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANTS. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM SE AND WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.1N 114.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE AND 100 NM NW QUADRANTS.
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE WITHIN
150 NM E AND WITHIN 270 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E AND 480 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.0N 118.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.5N 121.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 19.5N 126.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9
FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.

.42 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SAT JUL 16...

.HURRICANE DARBY...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
18N122W TO 17N122W TO 16N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 11N106W TO 18N110W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 11N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 06N93W AND 12N97W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 13.5N91.5W TO 16N95W.

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.