000
FZPN03 KNHC 181528
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1630 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 20.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.3N 105.7W 988 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 18 
MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
150 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 240 NM SE  
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 18.7N 107.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE...120 NM SE...90 NM SW AND 120 NM NW 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER 
OF AREA FROM 11N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 20.4N 109.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE AND 90 NM SW 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 180 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER 
OF AREA FROM 14N TO 23.5N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 21.5N 112.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 22.5N 114.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 22.5N 116.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. NW OF FRONT WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC THU SEP 18...

.HURRICANE POLO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.
 
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 11N102W...THEN 
RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15N107W TO 11N124W. ITCZ FROM  
11N124W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 84W TO 89W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 102W.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.