000
FZPN03 KNHC 161443
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1630 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 18.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.3N 124.1W 1002 MB AT 16/1500 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 
50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 
120W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.3N 127.6W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 30 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER 
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.5N 131.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 
15N TO 21N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.5N 133.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.5N 134.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 16.8N 134.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N140W 1006 MB STATIONARY. OVER FORECAST WATERS 
FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF 
AREA NEAR 14N141W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 12N TO 17N 
W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF 
AREA NEAR 15N141W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST FROM 14N TO 17N W OF 
139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 121W TO 127W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...E TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...E TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 1415 UTC SAT AUG 16...

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 210 
NM SW OF CENTER.

.LOW PRES NEAR 13N140W 1006 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF LOW CENTER. 

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 17N ALONG 102W/103W...SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE BETWEEN 07N AND 09N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG N OF 12N TO OVER MEXICO 
BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 08N92W TO 10N107W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
18N114W 1009 MB THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N126W TO 12N131W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N140W 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE FROM 05N105W TO 12N112W TO 14N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 91W...WITHIN 150 
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 210 NM NE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W AND 114W...AND 
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. 

$$
.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.