000
FZPN03 KNHC 140946
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1030 UTC THU AUG 14 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 14.                            
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 17.4N 115.2W 998 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 
14 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 20 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE...75 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.7N 119.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 75 
NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.2N 123.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH 
SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.6N 128.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR 
GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.2N 131.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 18.0N 133.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N139W 1008 MB. FROM 14N TO 16N W OF 137W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N140W 1008 MB. FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE...SE AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF 
AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT.

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 1118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 128W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0915 UTC THU AUG 14...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM NW AND 90 
NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 75 NM AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. 

.SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N92W 
TO 15N95W...AND ALSO FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

.SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 99W AND 
105W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
ITCZ FROM 10N86W TO 13N98W TO 12N95W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N102W 
TO 16N107W. MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N115W TO 11N130W TO 12N134W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N139W 1008 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 
126W...AND ALSO W OF 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S   
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.