000
FZPN03 KNHC 162139
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST                                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2230 UTC THU MAY 16 2013
 
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE 

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU MAY 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI MAY 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT MAY 18.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 9.5N 109.1W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC MAY 
16 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 210 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 10.8N 112.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 
WITHIN 90 NM SW QUADRANT OF ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. REMAINDER 
OF AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ALVIN NEAR 12.0N 114.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER... 
EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF ALVIN WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT OF 
ALVIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 
16N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN NEAR 13.0N 117.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALVIN NEAR 13.0N 
120.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ALVIN NEAR 13.0N 
122.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.12 HOUR FORECAST FROM 16N TO 19N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 19N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC THU MAY 16... 
.TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE.

.LOW PRES NEAR 07N79W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 07N79W 1011 MB TO 09N87W 
TO 06N97W TO 09N104W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N110W TO 05N134W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 05N134W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 121W AND 131W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.