000
FZPN03 KNHC 170253
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU OCT 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI OCT 19.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 25.6N 112.7W 992 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 17 
MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT... 
120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 28.0N
115.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SE QUADRANTS 
...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 29.0N
118.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W S TO SW WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 107W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N E OF A LINE FROM 24N118W TO 30N126W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL...
EXCEPT N OF 28N E OF 118W.

.N OF 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 
10 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 133W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0230 UTC TUE OCT 16...

.TROPICAL STORM PAUL...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN WITHIN 120-180 
NM NE QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 11N91W TO 10N100W TO 
13N108W THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N114W TO 09N130W TO 09N135W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N135W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N WITHIN 90 NM OF 
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N111W TO 15N115W TO 09N121W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 
138W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.