000
FZPN03 KNHC 160938
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 21.9N 112.7W 967 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 16 
MOVING NNE OR 020 DEG AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT 
GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE...100 
NM SE...60 NM SW AND 50 NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 160 NM NE...270 NM SE...140 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS 
WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 25.9N 112.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NE...90 NM SE...70 NM SW AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE... 120 NM NE 
QUADRANT AND 240 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL OVER WATER NEAR 28.6N
115.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE... 
120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 31.0N
120.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 270 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 109W AND 115W SW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 
110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM NW 
AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 28N E OF 118W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 180 NM OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 30N121W TO 18N140W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF LINE FROM 30N115W TO 20N130W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC MON OCT 15...

.HURRICANE PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 
NM SW AND 210 NM NE SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 14N92W TO 13N108W RESUMES S OF PAUL FROM 
15N114W TO 10N125W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 122W.  

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.