000
FZPN03 KNHC 152116
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 18.4N 114.2W 960 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 15 
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT 
GUSTS 125 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE AND SW 
QUADRANTS...70 NM NW QUADRANT AND 80 NM SE QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE...180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
300 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 23.0N 112.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...330 
NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 26.6N 113.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE 
QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 19 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 29.0N
117.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 390 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W SW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 
118W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW 
AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM NW 
AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 
108W AND 115W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N126W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W N WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO TO 
20N125W TO 18N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W N WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 134W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC MON OCT 15...

.HURRICANE PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 
19N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N85W TO 10N100W TO 13N105W RESUMES SW OF 
PAUL FROM 12N118W TO 10N131W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N131W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W 
AND 103W.  

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.