000
FZPN03 KNHC 141548
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 14.8N 115.1W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
14 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...15 NM 
SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 17.6N 115.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 120 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 22.1N 114.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 26.0N 114.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 28.5N
117.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PAUL NEAR 29.5N
121.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM NW 
AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 123W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN W TO NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NW 
AND 310 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF PAUL WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN W TO NW SWELL. FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.

.FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT 
IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N E OF 135 WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 20N E OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1200 UTC SUN OCT 14...

.T.S. PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
60 NM OF LINE 19N106W TO 19N115W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 09N100W RESUMES SW OF T.S. PAUL 
FROM 11N117W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.