000
FZPN03 KNHC 132121
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W.

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 15.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 14.0N 113.6W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
13 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
30 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 14.9N 115.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 18.2N 115.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 23.0N 114.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 26.5N 114.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL NEAR 28.5N 115.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
AND SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 270 
NM NW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM W SEMICIRCLE AND 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 11 FT. 

.FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 130W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 11N TO 14N W OF 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL.

.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N 
TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W INCLUDING GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.FROM 23N TO 28N W OF 118W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 24N AND 27N NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC SAT OCT 13...

.T.S. PAUL NEAR 14.0N 113.6W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM W 
AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES. NUMEROUS MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 
17N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 1010 MB 
NEAR 06N93W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. PAUL FROM 12N116W 
TO 11N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRING WITHIN 
120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 06N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.