000
FZPN03 KNHC 141549
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN AT 18.6N 106.8W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 14 
MOVING S OR 180 DEG AT 3 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 GUSTS 45 
KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 
NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE 
WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.6N 107.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 GUSTS 45 KT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 
NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 14.8N 108.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 GUSTS 45 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS 
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.1N 109.2W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST  TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN NEAR 15.5N 110.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST  POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IRWIN NEAR 15.5N 
110.0W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 75 NM SE AND 45 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W  W TO NW WINDS 
20 KT.  SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.  ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N 
E OF 110W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 60 
NM OF CENTER  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W  W TO NW WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS TO 
9 FT IN SW SWELL.  ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 125W...EXCEPT AS 
NOTED BELOW...WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT IN MERGING 
NW AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  EXCEPT AS NOTED IN IRWIN WARNINGS...WITHIN 75 
NM OF CENTER  WINDS TO 33 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 
07N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND E OF 108W  SW TO W WINDS 20 KT.  
SEAS TO 9 FT.  ELSEWHERE S OF 15N FROM 104W TO 120W  WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.

.FROM 05N TO 13N E OF 98W  SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 11
FT.  N OF 13N E OF 105W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO 
N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 11 FT.  ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 10N 
E OF 133W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 104W  SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  N OF 12N E OF 104W...INCLUDING GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT.  ELSEWHERE 
S OF 10N  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST  FROM 06N TO 12N E OF 100W  SW TO W WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT.  N OF 13N E OF 98W...INCLUDING GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.  SEAS TO 8 FT. 
ELSEWHERE S OF 07N E OF 130W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 9 
FT IN SW SWELL.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W.  W OF FRONT  N WINDS 20 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT IN NW SWELL.  ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 110W  WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST  LOW PRES 31N138W 1008 MB WITH COLD FRONT FROM 
30N135W TO 25N140W.  NW OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.  
SEAS TO 12 FT.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST  LOW PRES NEAR 30N137W 1006 MB WITH WEAKENING 
FRONT FROM 30N132W TO 18N140W.  N OF 26N W OF FRONT  W TO NW 
WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS 9 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL.  ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W 
OF 130W  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA  WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT.  SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI OCT 14...
.TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 75 
NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM STATIONARY 1004 MB LOW PRES OVER 
CENTRAL GUATEMALA AT 16N89W TO 14N100W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N123W 
TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N125W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 101W.  SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 05N E OF 80W.

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.