000 FZPN03 KNHC 100318 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0430 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. PAN PAN E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 10. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 11. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 12. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 16.5N 107.3W 975 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 10 MOVING E OR 080 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...270 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 17.0N 105.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 85 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...210 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE JOVA NEAR 19.1N 104.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...110 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT...270 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 105 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 34 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JOVA INLAND NEAR 22.0N 104.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA INLAND NEAR 24.0N 104.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST...JOVA DISSIPATED. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.2N 118.7W 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 10 MOVING E OR 085 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...75 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.4N 116.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 15.1N 112.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 16.2N 108.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 17.0N 105.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IRWIN NEAR 17.0N 103.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF JOVA...AND WITHIN 150 NM EXCEPT 240 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER OF IRWIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF JOVA...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF JOVA...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER OF IRWIN WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL...HIGHEST N CENTRAL PORTION. FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N E OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. S OF 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN S TO SW SWELL. .FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 125W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W N WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. W OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. .LOW PRES NEAR 11N95.5W 1006 MB. FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11.5N94.5W 1005 MB. WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SW SWELL. N OF 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 13.0N94.0W 1004 MB. WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN SW SWELL... HIGHEST CENTRAL PORTION. N OF 13N E OF 100W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 28N NW TO N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 23N TO 30N NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 0230 UTC MON OCT 10... .HURRICANE JOVA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90-120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. .TROPICAL STORM IRWIN...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 11N86W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N95.5W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IRWIN AND TROPICAL STORM JOVA. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 13.5N121W TO 10N130W TO 09N138W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N85W TO 07N97W...WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N97W TO 11N104W. $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.