000 FZPN03 KNHC 211516 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1630 UTC WED SEP 21 2011 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. PAN PAN E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 21. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 22. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 23. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 13.6N 96.8W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 14.5N 98.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 65 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...25 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM IN NE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM IN SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 15.7N 101.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 85 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...55 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. .72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.8N 105.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 18.0N 108.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.0N 112.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST .EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 112W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. .LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W 1011 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N QUADRANT NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 11N140W 1009 MB. WITHIN 120 NM E TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .06 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE FROM 30N127W TO 20N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST NW OF LINE 30N115W TO 10N140W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 1530 UTC WED SEP 21... .LOW PRESS 12N114W 1011 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N87W OVER NW NICARAGUA TO 13N91W WITH A BREAK AT T.S. HILARY. THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AGAIN AT 12N102W TO AN 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N114W TO 14N116W TO ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N121W TO A THIRD 1011 MB LOW AT 10N137W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.