000
FZPN03 KNHC 162123
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU NOV 16
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI NOV 17
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT NOV 18

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 13.6N 102.8W 982 MB AT 2100 UTC NOV 16 
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 
85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 75 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 15.2N 103.4W 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 17.0N 105.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 19.5N 106.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 21.0N 108.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO NEAR 22.0N 111.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 60 NM OF 16N94.5W 13N97W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 45 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 16N94.5W 
13N97W N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.  
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS BELOW GALE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM
W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 270 NM SE QUADRANT SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS WITHIN 180 
NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN SERGIO WARNINGS WITHIN 210 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W 
13N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 90 NM OF 
LINE 16N94.5W 13N99W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N94.5W 13N98W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. 

.N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W N WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W S TO 
SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 118W 
S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 2000 UTC THU NOV 16...
HURRICANE SERGIO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60-75 NM E SEMICIRCLE 
OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120-150 
NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N97W 15.5N100W 15.5N104W.

LOW NEAR 11N115W 1007 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...10N86W 13N100W 10N118W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 118W. 

FORECASTER COBB
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH