000
FZPN03 KNHC 212108
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 21
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 22
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 23

.WARNINGS
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 16.1N 107.4W 1000 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
21 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 16.6N 109.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM 
N AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 18.5N 111.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM 
E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PAUL NEAR 23.0N 109.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW PAUL INLAND NEAR 28.0N 105.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 NM 
SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN PAUL WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.S OF 8N BETWEEN 86W AND 105W S WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW 
SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 8N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W S WINDS TO 20 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 
120W WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 115W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 130W NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT 
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 128W WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 136W NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 
9 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 122W WINDS LESS THAN 
20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 27N W OF 132W NE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE 30N130W 25N140W WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 KT SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 2045 UTC SAT OCT 21...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 
17N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN A SPIRAL BAND 
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...12N86W 16N100W 8N110W 12N125W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
86W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 100W AND 
112W.

FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH