000
FZPN03 KNHC 150948
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SAT JUL 15
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 16
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 17

.WARNINGS

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 19.0N 116.5W 984 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 15
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS
85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
75 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 125 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 23 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.2N 117.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.3N 119.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
220 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 19 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 19.5N
123.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 19.5N 125.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 19.5N 128.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD NEAR 20.4N 131.4W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC
JUL 15 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 100 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 20.9N 136.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.0N 141.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST...REMNANT LOW DISSIPATED.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...
WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRLCE WINDS 20 TO 
30 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 
NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. FROM 3N 
TO 9N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. 
FROM 9N TO 15N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE E TO SE WINDS 20 KT SEAS 
TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 11N105W 1007 MB. FROM 3N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 112W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
S SWELL. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W NE TO E WINDS 20 
KT SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 12N112W 1006 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT.

.FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 
TO E WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 120 FROM COAST
N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 90 FROM COAST
N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0915 UTC SAT JUL 15...
HURRICANE CARLOTTA...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...8N80W 9N90W 9N100W TO
12N111W...THEN RESUMES AT 15N124W 10N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 99W...AND 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 99W AND 110W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
110W AND 113W.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH