000
FZPN03 KNHC 130315
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC THU JUL 13
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI JUL 14
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUL 15

.WARNINGS
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE BUD NEAR 17.1N 118.9W 960 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 13 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT 
GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM E SEMICIRCLE...125 NM SW 
QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 35 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE BUD NEAR 19.1N 123.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. SEAS TO 28 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BUD NEAR 20.7N 127.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM E 
AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM BUD NEAR 21.0N 132.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD NEAR 21.0N 136.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD NEAR 21.0N 139.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 16.2N 107.9W 991 MB AT 0300 UTC
JUL 13 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 105 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
75 NM W SEMICIRCLE...200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 16.9N 109.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 17.5N 111.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE AND 100 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 
30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 17.8N 114.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE 
AND 100 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CARLOTTA NEAR 18.0N 117.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.0N 120.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 20.0N 
123.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 NM S AND 180 NM N 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 5N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
5N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN BUD WARNINGS...WITHIN 240 
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...LITTLE 
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN CARLOTTA WARNINGS...LITTLE 
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS.

.FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 128W NE WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 92W E WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 9N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W S TO SW WINDS TO 
20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID 0300 UTC THU JUL 13...
HURRICANE BUD...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN SPIRAL BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
240 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN SPIRAL BANDS ELSEWHERE 
300 NM S AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...7N77W 9N88W 16N107W 7N132W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 80W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 132W.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH