000
FZNT02 KNHC 211712 CCA
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1712 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST FOR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILY

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED AUG 23.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN NEAR 15.0N 70.1W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
21 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE QUADRANT...0 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM 
SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES...INCLUDING 
THE MONA PASSAGE...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN NEAR 15.7N 71.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 
W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W 
AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INLAND THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC NEAR 19.2N 70.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 
55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...80 
NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 
12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM 
E SEMICIRCLE...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN NEAR 22.8N 68.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FRANKLIN NEAR 24.4N 65.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FRANKLIN NEAR 26.4N 63.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.

...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM GERT NEAR 16.9N 57.0W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 21 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 
45 KT. TROPICAL S
...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM GERT NEAR 16.9N 57.0W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 21 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 
45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
60 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM 
NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.  
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GERT NEAR 17.2N 
58.0W. WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GERT NEAR 17.8N 
59.1W. WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.TORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.  
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GERT NEAR 17.2N 
58.0W. WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW GERT NEAR 17.8N 
59.1W. WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

...GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE NEAR 25.0N 89.9W 1008 MB AT 
1500 UTC AUG 21 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NINE NEAR 26.6N 96.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NINE INLAND NEAR 
27.8N 100.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILY NEAR 21.1N 41.9W 1006 MB AT 1500 
UTC AUG 21 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT. WITHIN 390 NM NE AND 
270 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...REMNANT LOW OF EMILY...NEAR 22.5N 
45.5W. WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...REMNANT LOW OF EMILY...NEAR 25.2N 
48.8W. WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 72W AND 
75W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.