000
FZNT02 KNHC 271501
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 27.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 28.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 29.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 19.4N 42.9W 943 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 27
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT
GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 230 NM NE
QUADRANT...190 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 200 NM
NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 360 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
360 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 390 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 480 NM NE
QUADRANT...660 NM SE QUADRANT...810 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 540 NM
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 22.6N 44.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 420 NM NE QUADRANT...390 NM SE QUADRANT...510 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 480 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 900 NM S SEMICIRCLE...600 NM NE 
QUADRANT...AND 690 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 25.9N 43.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 200 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 140 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 390 NM NE QUADRANT...330
NM SE QUADRANT...480 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 630 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 49 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM
SE QUADRANT...510 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 660 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 07N TO 31N E OF 60W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 29.6N 41.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 34.5N 37.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 42.5N 28.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN NEAR 28.8N 59.6W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC
SEP 27 MOVING ENE OR 065 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE
QUADRANT...AND 0 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE 
QUADRANT...0 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KAREN NEAR 29.0N 
59.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 0 NM ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE 
QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KAREN NEAR 29.1N 
59.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KAREN NEAR 29.3N 
62.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.