000
FZNT02 KNHC 252049
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 25.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 26.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI SEP 27.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 14.5N 36.9W 978 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 25 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT 
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE 
QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 160 NM 
NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM NE 
QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM 
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 
FROM 08N TO 21N E OF 40W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA E OF LINE FROM 24N35W TO 20N43W TO 10N41W TO 
07N39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 16.1N 40.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 160 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...200 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NE...240 NM 
SE...360 NM SW...AND 390 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 42 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N E OF 45W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA S OF LINE 26N35W TO 23N47W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 19.5N 43.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
390 NM W SEMICIRCLE...330 NM NE QUADRANT...AND 360 NM SE 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 46 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 
36W AND 46W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 27N E OF 54W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 23.0N 44.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 26.5N 43.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 31.0N 40.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 22.9N 64.3W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 
25 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 75 NM SE QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 30 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 26.5N 63.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 30 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.9N 60.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 30 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...0 NM NW QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.5N 60.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 26.5N 63.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 26.0N 67.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY N OF AREA NEAR 32.2N 65.6W 999 
MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 25 MOVING ENE OR 070 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY N OF AREA NEAR 
33.7N  61.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.