000
FZNT02 KNHC 241606
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 24.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 25.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 26.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LORENZO E OF AREA NEAR 12.4N 29.3W 997 MB AT 
1500 UTC SEP 24 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 13N TO 19N E OF 
38W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO E OF AREA NEAR 12.9N 31.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 140 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N E 
OF 39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO JUST E OF AREA NEAR 13.6N 
34.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...60 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 140 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 31 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS E OF 
LINE FROM 20N35W TO 15N38W TO 11N35W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF 21N E OF 
39W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 15.0N 38.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 190 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
360 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
330 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 330 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF 
24N E OF 47W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 18.0N 41.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 21.1N 44.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENZO NEAR 23.9N 45.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 30.8N 69.3W 991 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 24 
MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 
60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160 NM NE QUADRANT... 
...150 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS...240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF 31N WITHIN 240 NM 
E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY N OF AREA NEAR 32.6N 
66.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER TO LIFT N OF AREA. OVER 
FORECAST WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY NEAR 34.2N 61.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 35.0N 
57.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW JERRY NEAR 34.5N 
54.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...REMNANT LOW DISSIPATED.

...ATLC AND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 17.6N 65.7W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 
24 MOVING N OR 00 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 70 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...75 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS
N OF 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 21.3N 64.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM 
SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE 
LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 25.5N 63.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.8N 62.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 28.0N 62.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 27.5N 65.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.