000
FZNT02 KNHC 221614
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 24.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 25.7N 66.6W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 22 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE 
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...90 
NM SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 360 NM NW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE...210 NM SE...60 NM 
SW...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 22N TO COLD FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW... 
BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND 61W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 28.2N 67.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 110 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT... 120 
NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NE...240 NM SE...75 NM SW...AND 270 NM 
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 31.0N 68.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
210 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM NE...300 NM SE...150 NM SW...AND 180 NM 
NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 35.0N 63.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 40.0N 54.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM JERRY NEAR 45.0N 45.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 12.5N 61.7W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 
22 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE...270 NM SE...30 NM SW...AND 75 NM NW 
QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF ATLC 
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 14.2N 64.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W 
OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 13 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NW AND 90 NM 
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. REMAINDER OF ATLC 
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 12.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 59.5W AND 67W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 16.9N 65.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 
NM NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM 
NE...210 NM NW...120 NM SW...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 20.7N 65.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 23.4N 65.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 25.3N 65.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N51W TO 28N60W TO 28N66W TO 
23N80W. WITHIN 240 NM N OF FRONT W OF 62W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FRONT TO BECOME ILL DEFINED. CONDITIONS TO 
MERGE WITH TROPICAL STORM JERRY.

.ATLC N OF 27N E OF 37W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N E OF 87W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE S OF 27N 
E OF 89W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE 
TO E SWELL STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.