000
FZNT02 KNHC 161537
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 28.6N 64.5W 971 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 16
MOVING NNE OR 020 DEG AT 21 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 130 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT
...390 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 420 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL WELL N OF AREA NEAR 36.5N 
59.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 220 NM E SEMICIRCLE...110 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 480 NM SE AND 420 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 45.5N 
44.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...240 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT S 
OF 31N.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 50.5N 
30.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 51.0N 
32.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 44.0N 
29.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 480 NM E AND 510 NM 
W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 77W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS....OVER FORECAST 
WATERS WITHIN 660 NM SE AND 570 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 54W AND LINE FROM
31N77W TO 23N65W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY 
IN E TO SE SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 52W AND 61W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
NE AND SE SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. N OF 26N E OF 45W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 23N E OF 46W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...HIGHEST NE. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.