000
FZNT02 KNHC 161013
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 26.6N 65.0W 974 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 16 
MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT 
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SW QUADRANT AND 130 NM NW QUADRANT.SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 315 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT... 
390 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 420 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 33 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 33.8N 61.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 330 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH 
SEAS TO 30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 43.3N 
49.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 220 NM NE QUADRANT...250 NM SE QUADRANT...180 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W WITH SEAS TO 
13 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 49.7N 
32.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 49.3N
28.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 46.5N
28.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...WITHIN 450 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...210 NM SW QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 57W AND 77W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING....OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 660 NM SE AND 270 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 23N 
BETWEEN 54W AND 80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN 
PRIMARILY E TO SE SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 52W AND 55W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 51W AND 64W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN PRIMARILY SE TO S SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 51W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E TO SE SWELL. N OF 29N E 
OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24.5W E OF 41W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.