000
FZNT02 KNHC 160315
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 25.1N 65.5W 974 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 16
MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT.SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 270 NM SE QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 31.6N 62.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 330 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH 
SEAS TO 35 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 41.2N 54.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 220 NM NE QUADRANT...250 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.0N
37.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.5N
26.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 49.5N
26.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...WITHIN 420 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 
TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 19N 
BETWEEN 56W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING....OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 540 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 330 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 
BAHAMAS N OF 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 80W AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 
57W AND 66W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN PRIMARILY SE 
TO S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...N OF 30N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF LINE FROM 31N49W TO 25N58W TO 31N63W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN PRIMARILY SE TO S SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 13N TO 23N E OF 48W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN 
PRIMARILY E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E TO SE SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.