000
FZNT02 KNHC 152253 AAA
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

AMENDED FOR UPGRADE OF RAFAEL TO HURRICANE AT 2245 UTC

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 24.3N 65.7W 974 MB AT 2245 UTC OCT 15 
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 
80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE 
QUADRANT...240 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 390 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 28 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 29.4N 64.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM SE 
QUADRANT...270 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 34 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 39.0N 57.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 220 NM NE QUADRANT...250 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 160 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 620 NM SE QUADRANT AND 540 NM SW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 47.0N
41.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.0N
27.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.0N
25.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...WITHIN 390 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 76W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING....OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 510 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 
BAHAMAS N OF 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 79W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT IN PRIMARILY SE TO S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 52W AND 58W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SE AND 
SW SWELL...HIGHEST NE.

.ATLC FROM 13N TO 22N E OF 45W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN 
PRIMARILY MIXED N AND E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E TO SE SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.