000
FZNT02 KNHC 151603
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 23.0N 65.7W 985 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
15 MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 350 NM NE QUADRANT...
210 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 420 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 27.4N 64.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...160 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM SE AND 420 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 35.4N 59.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...220 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 390 NM SE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS 
WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 43.5N 47.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 47.0N 
31.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 47.0N 
20.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 450
NE QUADRANT...350 NM SE QUADRANT...240 NM SW QUADRANT AND 480 NM 
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ATLC ELSEWHERE N 
OF 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS OVER 
FORECAST WATERS...WITHIN 510 NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM SE 
QUADRANT...480 NM SW QUADRANT AND 540 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 19N BETWEEN 
45W AND 77W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND 
SE SWELL...HIGHEST NE OF BAHAMAS.
.48 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL...HIGHEST N AND NE.

.ATLC FROM 09N TO 20N E OF 41W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N E OF 45W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 19N E OF 41W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SE AND NW SWELL...HIGHEST NE. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.