000
FZNT02 KNHC 151011
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 22.5N 65.3W 988 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 
15 MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT... 
120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 26.3N 65.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 330 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 33.8N 60.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 390 
NM SE AND 210 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 42.6N 50.6W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.2N
35.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 49.3N
24.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 
NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 
FT. ATLC ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 78W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 
420 NM NE AND 270 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 77W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN BROAD MIX OF SWELL.
.48 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 61W AND 65W AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 24N W OF 53W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN PRIMARILY E TO SE SWELL.

.ATLC FROM 14N TO 18N E OF 40W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N E OF 42W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 
8 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MERGING SE AND NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.