000
FZNT02 KNHC 150300
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED OCT 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 21.6N 64.8W 989 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT
15 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE
QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 24 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 24.8N 65.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 360 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 29 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 31.5N 62.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 27 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 40.5N 55.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.0N
39.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 49.0N
26.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 390 
NM NE QUADRANT...330 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 420 
NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ATLC 
ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 72W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL. 
.24 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 
360 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF BAHAMAS N OF 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 
76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN PRIMARILY SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 510 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 3000 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 
BAHAMAS N OF 24N W OF 53W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
IN PRIMARILY SE TO S SWELL.

.ATLC E OF BAHAMAS TO LINE FROM 31N50W TO 27N72W TO 20N72W 
EXCEPT N OF 29N W OF 76W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN 
NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH RAFAEL.

.ATLC FROM 11N TO 22N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN 
SE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN PRIMARILY E SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.