000
FZNT02 KNHC 141516
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 20.0N 64.1W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
14 MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...270 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 23.2N 66.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM N  SEMICIRCLE 
270 NM SE AND 180 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 29.1N 64.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NW AND 240 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 29 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 38.7N 58.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 48.5N
48.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 50.5N
40.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 360 
NM NE AND 300 NM SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W WINDS 
20 T0 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 
480 NM NE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 
12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 53W AND 72W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...N OF 22N 
BETWEEN 52W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
N OF 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 78W E OF BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL.

.ATLC NW OF LINE 31N61W TO 29N67W TO 22N79W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT E OF BAHAMAS.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...W OF LINE 
31N55W TO 25N76W NE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH RAFAEL.

.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N E OF 87W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 
8 TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.