000
FZNT02 KNHC 141014
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN OCT 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON OCT 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE OCT 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 19.4N 63.8W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 
14 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...270 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 22.5N 65.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...270 NM SE AND 180 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 24 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 27.1N 65.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 360 NM NW AND 240 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 36.2N 60.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 46.1N 52.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 50.4N
44.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...WITHIN 
360 NM NE AND 300 NM SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W 
WINDS 20 T0 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ATLC FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 
50W AND 57W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.24 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING... 
WITHIN 500 NM NE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE ATLC FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 
72W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING... N 
OF 21.5N BETWEEN 52W AND 70W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 21N E OF BAHAMAS BETWEEN 57W AND 76W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL.

.ATLC NW OF LINE FROM 31N61W TO 29N67W TO 22N79W NE WINDS 20 TO 
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FT FROM 25N 
TO 27N W OF 73W TO BAHAMAS. WITHIN 120 NM SE OF SAME LINE E OF 
BAHAMAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...W OF LINE 
FROM 31N53W TO 27N70W TO 20N77W AND N OF BAHAMAS NE WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH RAFAEL.

.CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N E OF 87W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 
8 FT EXCEPT TO 10 FT IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.