000
FZNT02 KNHC 132147
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN OCT 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON OCT 15.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 17.3N 63.3W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
13 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 360 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 20.9N 64.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 24.4N 66.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM N AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RAFAEL NEAR 31.5N 64.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL NEAR 43.0N 57.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL NEAR 50.5N
48.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...FROM 
14N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 65W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT EXCEPT 
NE TO E WINDS W OF RAFAEL. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ATLC FROM 12N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 46W AND 56W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN E TO SE 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL 
WARNING...WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE ATLC FROM 18N TO 29N BETWEEN 
57W AND 71W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR ATLC FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING... 
WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 19N E OF BAHAMAS BETWEEN 58W AND 
75W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN SE SWELL.

.ATLC W OF LINE FROM 31N63W TO 20N76W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN RAFAEL WARNING...W OF LINE 
FROM 31N56W TO 27N70W TO 21N77W AND N OF BAHAMAS NE WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH RAFAEL.

.CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 
85W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N E OF 87W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 
9 FT EXCEPT TO 12 FT IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.