000
FZNT02 KNHC 042206
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SAT AUG 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN AUG 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON AUG 06.

.WARNINGS.

...CARIBBEAN HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 14.8N 70.1W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG
04 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM NE
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM S SEMICIRCLE...180 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 15.7N 76.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE 
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERNESTO NEAR 16.5N 81.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT
...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
300 NM NE QUADRANT...75 NM SE QUADRANT...105 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERNESTO NEAR 18.0N 84.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERNESTO NEAR 19.5N 87.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 21.5N 90.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 15.3N 31.7W 1001 MB AT 2100 UTC
AUG 04 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 16.2N 35.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 45 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 17.1N 41.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 
TO 16 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 18.5N 47.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 20.5N 54.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FLORENCE NEAR 23.0N 
59.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ERNESTO WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE AND AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
OF CENTER OF ERNESTO WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 18N E OF 76W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ERNESTO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
210 NM NE QUADRANT...300 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT... 
AND 240 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER OF ERNESTO WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W E TO SE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ERNESTO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER OF 
ERNESTO WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
11 FT.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FLORENCE WARNINGS... 
FROM 14N TO 18N E OF 37W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FLORENCE WARNINGS...FROM 
15N TO 19N E OF 41W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.ATLC TROUGH FROM 31N80W TO 27N80W TO 23N80W. FROM 27N TO 30N E 
OF TROUGH TO 77W SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND 
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF 
TROUGH.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH MOVED W OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 70W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 23N W OF 65W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 23N W OF 70W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.