000
FZNT02 KNHC 041553
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 04.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 05.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 06.

.WARNINGS.

...CARIBBEAN HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 14.4N 68.7W 1008 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
04 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE 
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE...180 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 15.5N 74.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE 
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERNESTO NEAR 16.5N 80.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
300 NM NE QUADRANT...75 NM SE QUADRANT...105 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERNESTO NEAR 18.0N 84.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERNESTO NEAR 19.5N 87.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO NEAR 22.0N 90.5W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

...ATLC TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 14.8N 30.6W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC 
AUG 04 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM NE QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 13 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 16.0N 34.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM 
SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 45 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 16.5N 39.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 17.5N 46.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FLORENCE NEAR 19.5N
53.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FLORENCE NEAR 22.0N
59.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
 
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ERNESTO WARNINGS...N OF 15N E OF 
72W...S OF 14N E OF 68W AND WITHIN 90 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. N OF 18N E OF 76W...INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ERNESTO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
360 NM NE...300 NM SE...90 NM SW...AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS OF 
CENTER OF ERNESTO WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE 
S OF 19N E OF 74W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN ERNESTO WARNINGS...WITHIN 
270 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W E 
TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FLORENCE WARNINGS... 
FROM 14N TO 18N E OF 37W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN FLORENCE WARNINGS...FROM 
15N TO 19N E OF 41W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.ATLC TROUGH FROM 31N82W TO 27N80W TO 23N80W. FROM 27N TO 30N E 
OF TROUGH TO 77W SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS AND 
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH 
AND LOW.
.18 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH W OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.ATLC FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 23N W OF 67W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 23N W OF 70W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS TO 8 FT.

.CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.