000
FZNT02 KNHC 261512
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED SEP 26 2007
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
GULF OF MEXICO 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 26
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 27
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 28

.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 11.9N 42.9W 990 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 26
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 45 NM NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS AND 75 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
150 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 
120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KAREN NEAR 14.0N 46.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND WITHIN 
120 S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KAREN NEAR 16.8N 50.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...45 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM N AND WITHIN 150 S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KAREN NEAR 19.0N 52.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 21.0N 54.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR 23.0N 55.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN NEAR 20.9N 95.0W 1006 MB AT 1500
UTC SEP 26 MOVING S OR 180 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT SEAS TO 12 FT.   
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.5N 95.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND SEAS 
12 FT OR GREATER WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.1N 96.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW 
QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SEAS 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INLAND NEAR 20.0N 
97.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS WITHIN 210 NM SW 
QUADRANT AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS...LITTLE 
CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN KAREN WARNINGS WITHIN 240 
NM SW QUADRANT AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.ATLC TROUGH 31N78W 27N80W. WITHIN 90 NM E OF TROUGH SE WINDS TO 
20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT...SCATTERED TSTMS. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 29N78W 1012 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW SE TO S WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES AND CONDITIONS NE OF AREA.
   
.CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W NE TO E WINDS TO 
20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT AS NOTED IN TD THIRTEEN WARNINGS S OF 24N 
W OF 90W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN TSTMS WITHIN 
150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS WITHIN 150 NM OF 
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS WITHIN 180 NM 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
FORECASTER NELSON
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH