000
WOPZ41 KNHC 191214
DSAEP 
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 AM PDT THU OCT 19 2006
 
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...
 
A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...OR ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO...IS MOVING WEST TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS ACTIVITY 
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS 
AREAS...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO DURING 
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART