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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 21 1996
 
AN EYE APPEARED IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND 0000Z AND ALMA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...BASED ON THE AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T
NUMBER FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND THE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ALONG THE LINES OF SHIFOR GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD SEE EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
IF THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW.
 
THE CIRCULATION OF ALMA REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS LIKELY EXTEND OUT ONLY ABOUT 75 NMI...BASED ON A 29 KNOT
WIND REPORT FROM SHIP DVUI CENTERED 80 NMI TO THE NE OF THE
HURRICANE CENTER.
 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY TONIGHTS SOUNDING FROM
SOCORRO ISLAND WHICH RECORDED WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BETWEEN 850
AND 300 MB.  ALMA HAS SHOWN ONLY A DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES A SLOW MOVEMENT
AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE
LAPAZ SOUNDING SHOWED EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 700 AND
500 MB...SO PERHAPS THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
BETWEEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO KEEP ALMA
OFFSHORE.  THE MID AND DEEP BAM...THE STATISTICAL/SYNOPTIC...THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL...AND THE CLIPER TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ALL
SHOW A MORE WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH PARALLELS THE COAST OF
MEXICO.  THE GFDL IS THE ODD MAN OUT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT WILL NOT MAKE A DRASTIC CHANGE UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW
MORE AGREEMENT.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 15.8N 102.7W    70 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 103.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 105.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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