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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 12 1995
 
THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FLOSSIE AND IT IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 60 KNOT WINDS.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND ACQUIRE SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT
OF MOTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE AVIATION AND GFDL MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER 24 HOURS
BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE GFDL OR AVIATION MODELS AND IS MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MODELS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 25.6N 116.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 26.9N 119.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 26.8N 121.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 26.5N 123.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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