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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 11 1995
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT A T4.0...65 KNOTS.  THE AREAL
EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS
DIMINISHED... AND IT APPEARS THAT FLOSSIE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS.  WEAKENING
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY BE EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN
HERE...DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FLOSSIE SHOULD NOT GET
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA...BUT IT MAY PARALLEL THE COASTLINE OF THAT
PENINSULA FOR 12 HOURS OR SO.  IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD.  ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK
PREDICTION MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.  

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 22.5N 111.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N 114.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 24.6N 116.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 25.5N 123.0W    40 KTS
  
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